Transport market 2025–2026: demand is rising faster than supply
Market data show growing transport demand against a shrinking fleet and a structural driver shortage. What this means for companies that commission transport.
For European transport, 2025 was a year of transition — from firefighting one crisis after another to consciously managing volatility. For companies that commission transport, the key takeaway is simple: demand for transport is rising faster than vehicle availability, and that feeds directly into prices and truck availability.
Demand up, fleet down
Data from the international network of freight exchanges (Alpega) show the scale of the imbalance. Across the whole of 2025 the number of freight offers rose by 30.7% year on year — international offers by as much as 40.4% — while the number of available-vehicle offers fell by 2.5%. In the fourth quarter the gap widened further (freight up 34%). In other words: more goods to move, fewer trucks available.
Poland above the average
After a weak 2024, industrial output in the EU rebounded in 2025 (driven partly by electronics and machinery), and Poland grew above the EU average. The result was higher demand for transport, especially international — exactly the segment where the supply squeeze is greatest.
Costs and drivers — structural pressure
On top of this came rising costs: fuel, road tolls, social-security contributions and the minimum wage. The hardest factor, however, is the shortage of drivers. According to the International Road Transport Union (IRU), Europe was already short of 426,000 drivers in 2024 (up from 233,000 the year before), and by 2028 the gap could exceed 700,000. Around one third of drivers are over 55, so the problem will deepen rather than ease.
What this means for you as a shipper
Vehicle availability can no longer be taken for granted — especially on international routes and during peak season. Plan your orders in advance, not “for yesterday”.
The lowest rate does not equal the best choice. In a supply-constrained market, certainty that a truck will actually show up and on-time delivery matter more — downtime costs more than a few per cent saved on freight.
A steady freight-forwarding partner with a network of vetted carriers gives a real edge: access to capacity precisely when there is little of it on the market.
At TQM we treat this as everyday work — we maintain a stable carrier network and plan routes so that market tension does not become your delivery problem.
Do you need certainty of truck allocation on European routes? Let’s talk about your transport.
Factual basis: market and exchange data from the analysis “Transport market 2025–2026 in Europe and Poland” (Teleroute / Alpega Group) and IRU data on the driver shortage. Commentary and practical conclusions: the TQM team.